Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on November 12?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $96 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$95.76

Combined PnL

-$49.58

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$95.49

Total Shares96

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.27

Total Shares542

Combined PnL-$49.63

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.96	+$0.04	99% 601-5 (606)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.06	$14.06	+$0.01	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.47	$1.47	+$0	49% 471-500 (971)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.91	$0.12	-$20.8	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.35	$0.07	-$13.27	37% 3439-5885 (9324)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.64	$0.05	-$9.95	18% 80-367 (447)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.43	$0.03	-$5.4	47% 4803-5424 (10227)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.21	$0	-$0.21	25% 90-272 (362)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

601-5 (606)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.06

Value

$14.06

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

471-500 (971)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.91

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$20.8

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.35

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.27

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.64

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.95

Record

18%

80-367 (447)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.43

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.4

Record

47%

4803-5424 (10227)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

PnL

-$0.21

Record

25%

90-272 (362)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.