Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on November 12?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $218 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$218.19
-$0.76
99.1¢ → 98.5¢
-1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $74.25 | $73.88 | -$0.38 | 28% 112-285 (397) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $53.62 | $53.63 | +$0 | 53% 5845-5202 (11047) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $34.2 | $34.03 | -$0.17 | 52% 448-408 (856) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $26.34 | $26.2 | -$0.14 | 39% 3388-5407 (8795) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $8.84 | $8.86 | +$0.02 | 48% 482-512 (994) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $6.47 | $6.43 | -$0.04 | — |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $5.13 | $5.1 | -$0.03 | 47% 496-559 (1055) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $5.05 | $5.06 | +$0.01 | 29% 887-2138 (3025) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $18.58 | $5.01 | -$0.03 | 43% 791-1038 (1829) |
Invested
$74.25
Value
$73.88
PnL
-$0.38
Record
28%
112-285 (397)
Invested
$53.62
Value
$53.63
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5845-5202 (11047)
Invested
$34.2
Value
$34.03
PnL
-$0.17
Record
52%
448-408 (856)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$26.34
Value
$26.2
PnL
-$0.14
Record
39%
3388-5407 (8795)
Invested
$8.84
Value
$8.86
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
482-512 (994)
Invested
$6.47
Value
$6.43
PnL
-$0.04
Record
—
Invested
$5.13
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
496-559 (1055)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.01
Record
29%
887-2138 (3025)
Invested
$18.58
Value
$5.01
PnL
-$0.03
Record
43%
791-1038 (1829)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
godblessme2026
No — $73.88
cigarettes
No — $53.63
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $34.03
Lucerys
No — $26.2
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $8.86
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $6.43
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $5.1
mildwindow27
No — $5.06
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $5.01