Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $147 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$147.1
$2.32
96.6¢ → 96.4¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $99.06 | $101.73 | +$3.08 | 30% 258-593 (851) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $19.72 | $19.24 | -$0.48 | 37% 3143-5368 (8511) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $14.9 | $14.83 | -$0.07 | 54% 493-423 (916) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $8.86 | $8.66 | -$0.21 | 53% 5602-5022 (10624) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $2.65 | $2.65 | +$0 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
Invested
$99.06
Value
$101.73
PnL
+$3.08
Record
30%
258-593 (851)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.72
Value
$19.24
PnL
-$0.48
Record
37%
3143-5368 (8511)
Invested
$14.9
Value
$14.83
PnL
-$0.07
Record
54%
493-423 (916)
Invested
$8.86
Value
$8.66
PnL
-$0.21
Record
53%
5602-5022 (10624)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.