Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $54 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$54.46
-$0.26
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $20.39 | $20.22 | -$0.16 | 45% 378-468 (846) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $11.65 | $11.56 | -$0.09 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $9.95 | $10.02 | +$0.07 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5.14 | $5.14 | -$0 | 48% 343-365 (708) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5.08 | $5.04 | -$0.04 | 41% 689-993 (1682) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $2.5 | $2.48 | -$0.02 | 99% 275-2 (277) |
Invested
$20.39
Value
$20.22
PnL
-$0.16
Record
45%
378-468 (846)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.65
Value
$11.56
PnL
-$0.09
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$9.95
Value
$10.02
PnL
+$0.07
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$5.14
Value
$5.14
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
343-365 (708)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.04
Record
41%
689-993 (1682)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.02
Record
99%
275-2 (277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.