Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $377 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$376.61
-$3.05
90.2¢ → 97.5¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $256.45 | $256.45 | +$0 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $95.88 | $93.46 | -$2.42 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $18.34 | $17.96 | -$0.38 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $8.25 | $8.08 | -$0.17 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.82 | $0.65 | -$0.08 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Invested
$256.45
Value
$256.45
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$95.88
Value
$93.46
PnL
-$2.42
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$18.34
Value
$17.96
PnL
-$0.38
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$8.25
Value
$8.08
PnL
-$0.17
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.