Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on November 11?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 60¢ · $629 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$628.82
$43.82
60.5¢ → 60¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $319.03 | $344.25 | +$25.22 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 61¢ | $147.05 | $156.69 | +$9.64 | 69% 2060-944 (3004) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 37.1¢ | $95.72 | $103.2 | +$7.48 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $11.57 | $12.96 | +$1.4 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $5.65 | $5.83 | +$0.18 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $4.04 | $4.04 | +$0 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $1.85 | -$0.1 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
Invested
$319.03
Value
$344.25
PnL
+$25.22
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$147.05
Value
$156.69
PnL
+$9.64
Record
69%
2060-944 (3004)
Invested
$95.72
Value
$103.2
PnL
+$7.48
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.57
Value
$12.96
PnL
+$1.4
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$5.83
PnL
+$0.18
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$4.04
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$0.1
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.