Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on November 11?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 56¢ · $136 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$135.58
-$0
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $92.5 | $103.49 | +$10.99 | 23% 149-503 (652) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35¢ | $46.9 | $58.29 | +$11.39 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57¢ | $45.6 | $45.2 | -$0.4 | |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $12.37 | $12.57 | +$0.2 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $10.27 | $9.54 | -$0.73 | 52% 244-227 (471) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $6.02 | $7.02 | +$1 | 52% 5296-4806 (10102) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $3.44 | $2.96 | -$0.48 | 88% 434-59 (493) |
Invested
$92.5
Value
$103.49
PnL
+$10.99
Record
23%
149-503 (652)
Both legs:
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.37
Value
$12.57
PnL
+$0.2
Record
35%
2882-5322 (8204)
Invested
$10.27
Value
$9.54
PnL
-$0.73
Record
52%
244-227 (471)
Invested
$6.02
Value
$7.02
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
5296-4806 (10102)
Invested
$3.44
Value
$2.96
PnL
-$0.48
Record
88%
434-59 (493)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.