Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $330 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$330.12
-$19.17
89.9¢ → 84¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 90¢ | $247.03 | $231.28 | -$15.75 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.8¢ | $66.81 | $63.57 | -$3.24 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87.7¢ | $17.5 | $17.25 | -$0.25 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $18.33 | $10.26 | +$0.47 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $8.16 | $7.76 | -$0.4 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
Invested
$247.03
Value
$231.28
PnL
-$15.75
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$66.81
Value
$63.57
PnL
-$3.24
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$17.5
Value
$17.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$18.33
Value
$10.26
PnL
+$0.47
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$7.76
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.