Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $296 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$296.02
-$9.07
91.7¢ → 84¢
-8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $168.53 | $204.05 | +$35.52 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 86¢ | $122.98 | $119.41 | -$3.58 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $45.55 | $84.65 | +$39.1 | |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $33.56 | $30.06 | -$3.5 | 11% 28-230 (258) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $19.46 | $18.92 | -$0.54 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $16.7 | -$2.1 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $17.86 | $15.86 | -$2 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $11.37 | $10.43 | -$0.94 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
Invested
$168.53
Value
$204.05
PnL
+$35.52
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Both legs:
Invested
$33.56
Value
$30.06
PnL
-$3.5
Record
11%
28-230 (258)
Invested
$19.46
Value
$18.92
PnL
-$0.54
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$16.7
PnL
-$2.1
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$17.86
Value
$15.86
PnL
-$2
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$11.37
Value
$10.43
PnL
-$0.94
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.