Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on November 10?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 43¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 10

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$134.48

Combined PnL

-$29.35

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 43¢

-20% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$131.35

Total Shares279

Combined PnL-$29.42

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.13

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$0.07

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 53.5¢	$102.92	$85.09	-$17.83	21% 132-485 (617)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$16.5	$12.9	-$3.6	11% 35-270 (305)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$13.18	$11	-$2.18	6% 18-276 (294)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$11	$8.6	-$2.4	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$10.45	$8.17	-$2.28	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$3.06	$3.13	+$0.07	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$3.09	$2.6	-$0.48	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$2.52	$2.13	-$0.4	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$1.1	$0.86	-$0.24	31% 163-361 (524)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$102.92

Value

$85.09

PnL

-$17.83

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$3.6

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$13.18

Value

$11

PnL

-$2.18

Record

18-276 (294)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$2.4

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$10.45

Value

$8.17

PnL

-$2.28

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.48

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.4

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$0.24

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.