Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on November 10?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 23¢ · $138 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 14%
$137.64
-$33.92
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 32.7¢ | $117.79 | $79.2 | -$38.59 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $13.2 | $14.4 | +$1.2 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $12.53 | $14.1 | +$1.57 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $12.54 | $13.68 | +$1.14 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $7.04 | $6.78 | -$0.27 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 64.3¢ | $4.61 | $5.16 | +$0.55 | 35% 138-259 (397) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $3.84 | $4.32 | +$0.48 | 5% 18-315 (333) |
Invested
$117.79
Value
$79.2
PnL
-$38.59
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$1.2
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$12.53
Value
$14.1
PnL
+$1.57
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.54
Value
$13.68
PnL
+$1.14
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$6.78
PnL
-$0.27
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
Invested
$4.61
Value
$5.16
PnL
+$0.55
Record
35%
138-259 (397)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$4.32
PnL
+$0.48
Record
5%
18-315 (333)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.