Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on November 10?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 89¢ · $171 held · ends Nov 10

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$170.73

Combined PnL

$6.47

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 88.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$167.66

Total Shares180

Combined PnL+$5.46

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.07

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$1.01

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 89.2¢	$60.44	$63.87	+$3.44	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$57.33	$39.28	-$0.12	53% 85-74 (159)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 86¢	$25.8	$26.76	+$0.96	3% 4-132 (136)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$17.02	$17.84	+$0.82	38% 88-145 (233)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$11.33	$11.35	+$0.01	68% 42-20 (62)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$6.31	$6.63	+$0.27	42% 16-22 (38)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.5	$2.23	+$0.73	77% 43-13 (56)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$1.86	$1.93	+$0.08	28% 55-139 (194)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.56	$0.83	+$0.27	—

241532532432<$100

Invested

$60.44

Value

$63.87

PnL

+$3.44

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$57.33

Value

$39.28

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

85-74 (159)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$25.8

Value

$26.76

PnL

+$0.96

Record

4-132 (136)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.02

Value

$17.84

PnL

+$0.82

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.33

Value

$11.35

PnL

+$0.01

Record

68%

42-20 (62)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$0.27

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.73

Record

77%

43-13 (56)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$0.08

Record

28%

55-139 (194)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.83

PnL

+$0.27

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.