Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on November 10?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$158.98

Combined PnL

-$0.89

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 99.3¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$158.98

Total Shares163

Combined PnL-$0.89

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$49	$48.34	-$0.66	5% 18-315 (333)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$29.13	$29.25	+$0.12	21% 132-485 (617)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$26.96	$21.75	+$0.48	51% 197-186 (383)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$19.78	$19.5	-$0.28	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99¢	$18.81	$18.53	-$0.29	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$10.86	$10.73	-$0.13	30% 174-414 (588)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.92	$5.85	-$0.07	11% 35-270 (305)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$5.09	$5.04	-$0.05	36% 462-806 (1268)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$49

Value

$48.34

PnL

-$0.66

Record

18-315 (333)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$29.13

Value

$29.25

PnL

+$0.12

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.96

Value

$21.75

PnL

+$0.48

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.78

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$18.81

Value

$18.53

PnL

-$0.29

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.86

Value

$10.73

PnL

-$0.13

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.07

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.