Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 31?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 78¢ · $115 held · ends Oct 31

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$115.35

Combined PnL

$1.51

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$55.08

Total Shares306

Combined PnL+$4.24

No3 traders

Total Value$60.27

Total Shares66

Combined PnL-$2.73

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.3¢	$31.2	$32.49	+$1.28	50% 1726-1710 (3436)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 83¢	$32.32	$32	-$0.32	22% 291-1025 (1316)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$19.63	$22.59	+$2.96	51% 609-591 (1200)
74 0x7495...7fcf<$100	Noavg 89¢	$17.8	$16.4	-$1.4	18% 522-2339 (2861)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89¢	$12.88	$11.87	-$1.01	57% 13381-10228 (23609)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.2

Value

$32.49

PnL

+$1.28

Record

50%

1726-1710 (3436)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$32.32

Value

$32

PnL

-$0.32

Record

22%

291-1025 (1316)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.63

Value

$22.59

PnL

+$2.96

Record

51%

609-591 (1200)

0x7495...7fcf<$100

Invested

$17.8

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$1.4

Record

18%

522-2339 (2861)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.88

Value

$11.87

PnL

-$1.01

Record

57%

13381-10228 (23609)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.