Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 31?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
1
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$446.96
$39.91
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 39.6¢ | $266.81 | $306.72 | +$39.91 | 51% 626-610 (1236) |
RO rocky42019ARB<$100 | Noavg 58.1¢ | $110.02 | $79.77 | -$11.58 | 42% 1713-2337 (4050) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.1¢ | $43.61 | $44.25 | -$1.24 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $42.5 | $35.52 | -$10.34 | |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 60.3¢ | $60.8 | $60.47 | -$0.14 | 21% 300-1139 (1439) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.3¢ | $36.21 | $35.4 | -$0.81 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $24.4 | $25.07 | +$0.67 |
Invested
$266.81
Value
$306.72
PnL
+$39.91
Record
51%
626-610 (1236)
Invested
$110.02
Value
$79.77
PnL
-$11.58
Record
42%
1713-2337 (4050)
Both legs:
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$60.8
Value
$60.47
PnL
-$0.14
Record
21%
300-1139 (1439)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.