Back to Markets
Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$22.31
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares145
Combined PnL-$22.31
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 40%No — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $22.31 | — | -$22.31 | 56% 372-296 (668) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20981-13343 (34324) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 87.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1774-1756 (3530) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 85.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 647-728 (1375) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$22.31
Value
—
PnL
-$22.31
Record
56%
372-296 (668)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20981-13343 (34324)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1774-1756 (3530)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
647-728 (1375)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x7bf76ed8...8d4d3a
Slug
highest-temperature-in-tokyo-on-october-30-2026-22c