Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 30?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $177 held · ends Oct 30

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$177

Combined PnL

$31.85

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$122.12

Total Shares543

Combined PnL+$34.59

No3 traders

Total Value$55.2

Total Shares53

Combined PnL-$2.74

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 16.2¢	$84.74	$117.62	+$32.89	47% 606-688 (1294)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$33.04	$29.37	-$3.67	50% 1694-1679 (3373)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 87¢	$20.2	$20.01	-$0.01	24% 285-919 (1204)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75¢	$4.88	$5.83	+$0.95	57% 13319-10177 (23496)
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$2.8	$4.5	+$1.7	—

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$84.74

Value

$117.62

PnL

+$32.89

Record

47%

606-688 (1294)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$33.04

Value

$29.37

PnL

-$3.67

Record

50%

1694-1679 (3373)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

24%

285-919 (1204)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$5.83

PnL

+$0.95

Record

57%

13319-10177 (23496)

0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1.7

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.