Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 29?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 26¢ · $590 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$589.79
$51.08
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $165.76 | $239.56 | +$73.8 | 51% 597-567 (1164) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $171.38 | $151.97 | -$5.45 | 25% 283-869 (1152) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79¢ | $120.09 | $113.97 | -$7.02 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $36.63 | $38 | +$1.56 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 84.8¢ | $155.43 | $137.45 | -$18.89 | 55% 293-244 (537) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $46.87 | $43.51 | -$3.36 | 50% 1684-1666 (3350) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $17.76 | $17.29 | -$0.46 | 53% 6367-5579 (11946) |
Invested
$165.76
Value
$239.56
PnL
+$73.8
Record
51%
597-567 (1164)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$171.38
Value
$151.97
PnL
-$5.45
Record
25%
283-869 (1152)
Both legs:
Invested
$155.43
Value
$137.45
PnL
-$18.89
Record
55%
293-244 (537)
Invested
$46.87
Value
$43.51
PnL
-$3.36
Record
50%
1684-1666 (3350)
Invested
$17.76
Value
$17.29
PnL
-$0.46
Record
53%
6367-5579 (11946)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.