Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (93%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on November 9?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 7.5¢ · $263 held · ends Nov 9

Yes93¢No7¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$263.17

Combined PnL

-$251.53

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 7.5¢

-88% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 93%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$166.67

Total Shares186

Combined PnL+$53.58

No5 traders

Total Value$96.49

Total Shares1,013

Combined PnL-$305.11

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$65.42	$61.9	-$3.52	57% 884-678 (1562)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$66.9	$58.87	+$47.86	55% 25944-21274 (47218)
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 67¢	$92.52	$55.51	-$37.01	25% 2350-6994 (9344)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$19	$20	+$1	13% 655-4517 (5172)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR	Noavg 62.5¢	$172.59	$17.94	-$154.65	46% 6859-8117 (14976)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$16.82	$17.59	+$0.77	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 62.2¢	$107.13	$12.91	-$94.21	47% 47377-53600 (100977)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$23.8	$5.1	-$18.7	15% 4974-29103 (34077)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$5.57	$5.02	-$0.54	21% 924-3465 (4389)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.85	$4.39	+$3.94	43% 18483-24122 (42605)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 8.9¢	$4.46	$3.92	+$3.52	22% 3281-11775 (15056)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.42

Value

$61.9

PnL

-$3.52

Record

57%

884-678 (1562)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.9

Value

$58.87

PnL

+$47.86

Record

55%

25944-21274 (47218)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$92.52

Value

$55.51

PnL

-$37.01

Record

25%

2350-6994 (9344)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$20

PnL

+$1

Record

13%

655-4517 (5172)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR

Invested

$172.59

Value

$17.94

PnL

-$154.65

Record

46%

6859-8117 (14976)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.82

Value

$17.59

PnL

+$0.77

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$107.13

Value

$12.91

PnL

-$94.21

Record

47%

47377-53600 (100977)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$23.8

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$18.7

Record

15%

4974-29103 (34077)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Invested

$5.57

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.54

Record

21%

924-3465 (4389)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.85

Value

$4.39

PnL

+$3.94

Record

43%

18483-24122 (42605)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.46

Value

$3.92

PnL

+$3.52

Record

22%

3281-11775 (15056)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 93%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.