Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on November 9?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $476 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$475.88
-$33.34
99.7¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $71.88 | $395.69 | +$0.75 | 46% 6878-8119 (14997) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $80.04 | $80 | +$0.67 | 97% 59583-1863 (61446) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $30.81 | $0.17 | -$30.65 | 21% 929-3491 (4420) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.14 | $0.02 | -$4.11 | 25% 2354-7013 (9367) |
Invested
$71.88
Value
$395.69
PnL
+$0.75
Record
46%
6878-8119 (14997)
Invested
$80.04
Value
$80
PnL
+$0.67
Record
97%
59583-1863 (61446)
Invested
$30.81
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$30.65
Record
21%
929-3491 (4420)
Invested
$4.14
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.11
Record
25%
2354-7013 (9367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.