Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on November 8?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 71¢ · $269 held · ends Nov 8

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$269.35

Combined PnL

-$4.24

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 71¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$107.6

Total Shares146

Combined PnL-$0.71

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.9

Total Shares64

Combined PnL-$3.53

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Yesavg 22.2¢	$232.02	$150.85	+$25.22	38% 887-1421 (2308)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.2¢	$74.11	$83.63	+$9.53
└ No leg	Noavg 57.5¢	$51.52	$67.22	+$15.7
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 75¢	$33.98	$32.62	-$1.36	70% 14146-6050 (20196)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 75¢	$22.5	$21.6	-$0.9	38% 7384-11865 (19249)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 68.8¢	$18.7	$20.37	+$1.67	39% 1284-2050 (3334)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75.7¢	$20.13	$19.94	-$0.2	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.8¢	$10.87	$9.35	-$1.52	32% 2247-4752 (6999)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 74¢	$5.26	$5.33	+$0.07	53% 4566-4056 (8622)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.88	$3.88	+$0	39% 1298-2033 (3331)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.87	$3.87	+$0	36% 1176-2127 (3303)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$3.56	$1.55	-$2.01	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$232.02

Value

$150.85

PnL

+$25.22

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

Both legs:

Yes$74.1122.2¢+$9.53

No$51.5257.5¢+$15.7

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$33.98

Value

$32.62

PnL

-$1.36

Record

70%

14146-6050 (20196)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$0.9

Record

38%

7384-11865 (19249)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$18.7

Value

$20.37

PnL

+$1.67

Record

39%

1284-2050 (3334)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20.13

Value

$19.94

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.87

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$1.52

Record

32%

2247-4752 (6999)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.26

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

4566-4056 (8622)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.88

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.87

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

1176-2127 (3303)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.56

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$2.01

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.