Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on November 6?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $226 held · ended Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$225.89
$9.57
91.6¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $199.8 | $199.8 | -$0 | 97% 305-8 (313) |
12 123987456<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $1.05 | $9.99 | +$8.94 | 42% 2368-3245 (5613) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $16.55 | $6.16 | +$6.42 | 28% 2885-7426 (10311) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $1.75 | $4.92 | +$3.17 | 71% 13962-5629 (19591) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $11.58 | $2.76 | -$8.83 | 57% 735-562 (1297) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 5.3¢ | $2.06 | $1.93 | -$0.13 | 17% 4506-22058 (26564) |
Invested
$199.8
Value
$199.8
PnL
-$0
Record
97%
305-8 (313)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$8.94
Record
42%
2368-3245 (5613)
Invested
$16.55
Value
$6.16
PnL
+$6.42
Record
28%
2885-7426 (10311)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$1.75
Value
$4.92
PnL
+$3.17
Record
71%
13962-5629 (19591)
Invested
$11.58
Value
$2.76
PnL
-$8.83
Record
57%
735-562 (1297)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$2.06
Value
$1.93
PnL
-$0.13
Record
17%
4506-22058 (26564)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.