Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 6?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $135 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$135.02
$8.85
91.6¢ → 97.5¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $88.2 | $61.74 | +$5.1 | 58% 21279-15443 (36722) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $32.12 | $35.95 | +$3.83 | 17% 4501-22033 (26534) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $28.86 | $23.75 | -$0.3 | 42% 2349-3204 (5553) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $41.55 | $12.43 | +$0.09 | 72% 13881-5445 (19326) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $1.01 | $1.14 | +$0.13 | 52% 30941-28990 (59931) |
Invested
$88.2
Value
$61.74
PnL
+$5.1
Record
58%
21279-15443 (36722)
2B9S<$100Invested
$32.12
Value
$35.95
PnL
+$3.83
Record
17%
4501-22033 (26534)
Invested
$28.86
Value
$23.75
PnL
-$0.3
Record
42%
2349-3204 (5553)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$41.55
Value
$12.43
PnL
+$0.09
Record
72%
13881-5445 (19326)
balthazar<$100Invested
$1.01
Value
$1.14
PnL
+$0.13
Record
52%
30941-28990 (59931)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.