Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 4?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $59 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$58.98

Combined PnL

-$42.2

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$56.5

Total Shares57

Combined PnL+$5.15

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.48

Total Shares836

Combined PnL-$47.35

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 91¢	$47.69	$25.95	+$2.31	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$16.28	$17.29	+$1.56	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87¢	$6.96	$7.99	+$1.03	53% 9606-8430 (18036)
BE berlinskies<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$5.01	$5.26	+$0.25	58% 6288-4542 (10830)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.04	$0.92	+$3.98	40% 2066-3099 (5165)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$25.86	$0.6	-$25.26	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 5.1¢	$202.55	$0.52	-$12.78	42% 779-1075 (1854)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.9¢	$8.33	$0.36	-$7.97	53% 3647-3270 (6917)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.1¢	$5.39	$0.08	-$5.31	48% 2103-2279 (4382)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$47.69

Value

$25.95

PnL

+$2.31

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.28

Value

$17.29

PnL

+$1.56

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.96

Value

$7.99

PnL

+$1.03

Record

53%

9606-8430 (18036)

berlinskies<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

6288-4542 (10830)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$3.98

Record

40%

2066-3099 (5165)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.86

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$25.26

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$202.55

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$12.78

Record

42%

779-1075 (1854)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.33

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$7.97

Record

53%

3647-3270 (6917)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.39

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$5.31

Record

48%

2103-2279 (4382)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.