Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on November 15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 78¢ · $348 held · ends Nov 15

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$347.92

Combined PnL

$2.74

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 77.5¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$232.4

Total Shares274

Combined PnL-$1.45

Yes3 traders

Total Value$115.51

Total Shares631

Combined PnL+$4.19

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 82¢	$163.99	$165.99	+$2	31% 165-364 (529)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.9¢	$73.83	$66.38	-$7.45	40% 42-63 (105)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.3¢	$75.26	$48.29	+$11.59	40% 657-989 (1646)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$53.23	$28.32	-$2.47	65% 4316-2329 (6645)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 70¢	$31.4	$14.5	+$0.1	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$17.79	$11.48	-$0.71	52% 1709-1558 (3267)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 85¢	$6.76	$5.33	-$1.43	30% 1042-2403 (3445)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.53	$4.51	+$0.98	57% 703-521 (1224)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 70¢	$2.2	$2.28	+$0.08	51% 807-768 (1575)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$0.8	$0.85	+$0.05	14% 82-514 (596)

Haradwaith

Invested

$163.99

Value

$165.99

PnL

+$2

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.83

Value

$66.38

PnL

-$7.45

Record

40%

42-63 (105)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.26

Value

$48.29

PnL

+$11.59

Record

40%

657-989 (1646)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$53.23

Value

$28.32

PnL

-$2.47

Record

65%

4316-2329 (6645)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$31.4

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.79

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$0.71

Record

52%

1709-1558 (3267)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$6.76

Value

$5.33

PnL

-$1.43

Record

30%

1042-2403 (3445)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.53

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0.98

Record

57%

703-521 (1224)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

807-768 (1575)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.