Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on November 15?

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 67¢ · $388 held · ends Nov 15

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$387.88

Combined PnL

$13.35

Smart Money Entry

40.7¢ → 67¢

+64% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$124.4

Total Shares280

Combined PnL-$2.83

No10 traders

Total Value$63.22

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$16.18

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 38¢	$225.86	$200.25	-$0.25	40% 660-990 (1650)
└ No leg	Noavg 38¢	$172.11	$147.09	-$25.42
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.4¢	$31.05	$53.17	+$25.17
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 40.8¢	$124.16	$118.88	-$5.27	55% 1097-903 (2000)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$10.98	$12.63	+$1.66	49% 789-829 (1618)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$29.6	$10.6	+$1.8	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$20.57	$8.16	+$14.3	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 42.5¢	$8.73	$8.12	-$0.61	50% 723-711 (1434)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$14.02	$7.7	-$0.33	65% 4317-2331 (6648)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 52.2¢	$7.14	$6.02	-$1.12	51% 809-769 (1578)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$4.58	$5.52	+$2.44	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$4.8	$5.2	+$0.4	29% 3186-7958 (11144)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$1.88	$2.03	+$0.16	51% 773-729 (1502)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$1.29	$1.4	+$0.11	42% 2632-3661 (6293)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$1.55	$1.37	-$0.18	49% 758-801 (1559)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$225.86

Value

$200.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

Both legs:

No$172.1138¢-$25.42

Yes$31.0539.4¢+$25.17

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$124.16

Value

$118.88

PnL

-$5.27

Record

55%

1097-903 (2000)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$10.98

Value

$12.63

PnL

+$1.66

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$29.6

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$20.57

Value

$8.16

PnL

+$14.3

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$8.73

Value

$8.12

PnL

-$0.61

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$14.02

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$0.33

Record

65%

4317-2331 (6648)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$7.14

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$1.12

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.58

Value

$5.52

PnL

+$2.44

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$0.4

Record

29%

3186-7958 (11144)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

$2.03

PnL

+$0.16

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$1.29

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.11

Record

42%

2632-3661 (6293)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.