Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on November 15?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 100¢ · $111 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$111.11

Combined PnL

-$3.15

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$110.71

Total Shares111

Combined PnL-$3.38

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.4

Total Shares72

Combined PnL+$0.24

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$56.95	$19.91	-$3.3	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$19.9	+$0.02	35% 251-467 (718)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$15.44	$15.42	-$0.02	51% 773-729 (1502)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.5	$10.48	-$0.02	63% 741-442 (1183)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.95	-$0.02	57% 704-522 (1226)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.95	-$0.02	29% 3186-7958 (11144)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$7.93	$7.91	-$0.02	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.16	$5.15	-$0.01	49% 789-829 (1618)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.04	$5.03	-$0.01	51% 809-769 (1578)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$3.89	$3.89	-$0.01	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$3.13	$3.12	-$0	50% 723-711 (1434)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.2	$0.3	+$0.1	14% 82-515 (597)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.04	$0.1	+$0.14	52% 1716-1565 (3281)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$56.95

Value

$19.91

PnL

-$3.3

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$0.02

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$15.44

Value

$15.42

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.95

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.95

PnL

-$0.02

Record

29%

3186-7958 (11144)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.91

PnL

-$0.02

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.13

Value

$3.12

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

14%

82-515 (597)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.14

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.