Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on November 14?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 99¢ · $250 held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$250.35

Combined PnL

$4.74

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 99¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$250.31

Total Shares252

Combined PnL+$4.75

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.02

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$0.01

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96¢	$128.54	$133.16	+$4.61	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.48	$29.32	-$0.16	50% 701-690 (1391)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99¢	$23.86	$23.82	-$0.04	48% 762-815 (1577)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$19.58	$19.88	+$0.3	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$14.94	$14.9	-$0.04	99% 1213-13 (1226)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$9.79	$9.94	+$0.15	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$9.24	$9.14	-$0.11	63% 716-429 (1145)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$5.12	$5.14	+$0.02	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$5	$5.02	+$0.02	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0.01	49% 736-769 (1505)

241532532432

Invested

$128.54

Value

$133.16

PnL

+$4.61

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$29.48

Value

$29.32

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$23.86

Value

$23.82

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.58

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$14.94

Value

$14.9

PnL

-$0.04

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.79

Value

$9.94

PnL

+$0.15

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$9.24

Value

$9.14

PnL

-$0.11

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.