Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 14?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 29¢ · $135 held · ends Nov 14

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$135.32

Combined PnL

-$1.15

Research grade

AvoidNo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$91.36

Total Shares180

Combined PnL+$9.89

No8 traders

Total Value$43.97

Total Shares119

Combined PnL-$11.05

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Yesavg 44.3¢	$58.04	$57.64	-$0.4	55% 1088-874 (1962)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 32.7¢	$12.39	$13.77	+$1.37	72% 823-323 (1146)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$19.74	$13.58	-$6.16	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 66.3¢	$11.59	$12.3	+$0.7	51% 742-710 (1452)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$46.83	$11.71	+$6.42	40% 620-939 (1559)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$19.41	$8.8	+$3.11	31% 146-327 (473)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$10.2	$6.4	-$3.8	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 33.8¢	$4.76	$3.6	-$1.17	58% 699-503 (1202)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$3.5	$3.47	-$0.02	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.65	$1.32	-$0.34	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.63	$1.3	-$0.33	63% 714-428 (1142)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$0.84	$0.91	+$0.07	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$1.13	$0.54	-$0.6	48% 757-814 (1571)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.04

Value

$57.64

PnL

-$0.4

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$12.39

Value

$13.77

PnL

+$1.37

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$19.74

Value

$13.58

PnL

-$6.16

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.59

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$0.7

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.83

Value

$11.71

PnL

+$6.42

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.41

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$3.11

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$3.8

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$1.17

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.33

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.07

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.13

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.6

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.