Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 14?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 76¢ · $216 held · ends Nov 14

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$216.3

Combined PnL

$0.31

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$94.35

Total Shares493

Combined PnL-$18.64

No8 traders

Total Value$121.94

Total Shares139

Combined PnL+$18.95

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$92.71	$78.64	-$14.08	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71.4¢	$30.9	$40.86	+$9.96	72% 823-323 (1146)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$70.8	$29.87	+$4.55	31% 146-327 (473)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 74.8¢	$14.96	$14.9	-$0.06	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$12.56	$14.33	+$1.77	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.2¢	$73.05	$10.07	-$6.15	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$6.76	$8.12	+$1.37	51% 782-754 (1536)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$7.62	$7.45	-$0.17	34% 263-518 (781)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$3.76	$4.52	+$0.76	49% 731-768 (1499)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$1.56	$2.34	+$0.79	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$1.11	$1.89	+$0.78	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.4¢	$1.36	$1.34	-$0.02	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.4¢	$1.13	$1.11	-$0.02	50% 697-689 (1386)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.4¢	$4.72	$0.85	+$0.83	58% 679-500 (1179)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.71

Value

$78.64

PnL

-$14.08

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$30.9

Value

$40.86

PnL

+$9.96

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$70.8

Value

$29.87

PnL

+$4.55

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.96

Value

$14.9

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$12.56

Value

$14.33

PnL

+$1.77

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.05

Value

$10.07

PnL

-$6.15

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.76

Value

$8.12

PnL

+$1.37

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$7.62

Value

$7.45

PnL

-$0.17

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$0.76

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0.79

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.78

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.34

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.72

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.83

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.2%

76.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.