Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $138 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$137.87

Combined PnL

-$39.99

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$137.64

Total Shares138

Combined PnL+$3.18

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares457

Combined PnL-$43.17

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$58.26	$59.84	+$1.59	40% 633-964 (1597)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$44.23	$45.3	+$1.29	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$19.84	$19.99	+$0.15	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$9.86	$10	+$0.14	29% 237-570 (807)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$2.5	$2.51	+$0.01	99% 1243-13 (1256)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$29.15	$0.16	-$28.99	27% 679-1844 (2523)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.09	$0.03	-$6.06	58% 692-501 (1193)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$26.69	$0.02	-$5.03	36% 3740-6764 (10504)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.11	$0.02	-$3.09	44% 5060-6556 (11616)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$58.26

Value

$59.84

PnL

+$1.59

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$44.23

Value

$45.3

PnL

+$1.29

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.84

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.86

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.14

Record

29%

237-570 (807)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1243-13 (1256)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.15

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$28.99

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.09

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.06

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.69

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.03

Record

36%

3740-6764 (10504)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.11

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.09

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.