Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on November 14?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $100 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$100.21

Combined PnL

-$47.56

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$99.95

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.08

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.26

Total Shares527

Combined PnL-$47.64

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.87	$99.95	+$0.08	99% 1243-13 (1256)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$29.15	$0.16	-$28.99	27% 679-1844 (2523)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.09	$0.03	-$6.06	58% 692-501 (1193)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.34	$0.03	-$5.31	36% 3740-6764 (10504)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.11	$0.02	-$3.09	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.11	$0.01	-$2.1	26% 548-1576 (2124)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	29% 1098-2660 (3758)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.89	$0	-$0.89	31% 157-344 (501)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.31	$0	-$0.31	29% 3170-7895 (11065)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$99.87

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.08

Record

99%

1243-13 (1256)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.15

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$28.99

Record

27%

679-1844 (2523)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.09

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.06

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.34

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.31

Record

36%

3740-6764 (10504)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.11

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.09

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.11

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.1

Record

26%

548-1576 (2124)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

29%

1098-2660 (3758)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

PnL

-$0.89

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

PnL

-$0.31

Record

29%

3170-7895 (11065)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.