Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on November 13?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$84.78

Combined PnL

-$28.19

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$84.29

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.49

Total Shares315

Combined PnL-$28.24

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$58.31	$58.34	+$0.03	99% 649-8 (657)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.74	$11.74	+$0.01	63% 463-277 (740)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.02	$9.03	+$0	42% 827-1152 (1979)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.17	$5.17	+$0.01	47% 518-588 (1106)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.95	$0.19	-$1.21	58% 468-339 (807)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.91	$0.12	-$10.79	47% 4818-5478 (10296)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.72	$0.1	-$8.63	58% 1038-742 (1780)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.82	$0.08	-$6.74	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.86	$0.01	-$0.85	30% 2950-6939 (9889)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0.02	53% 905-797 (1702)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$58.31

Value

$58.34

PnL

+$0.03

Record

99%

649-8 (657)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$11.74

Value

$11.74

PnL

+$0.01

Record

63%

463-277 (740)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.02

Value

$9.03

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

827-1152 (1979)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

518-588 (1106)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.95

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$1.21

Record

58%

468-339 (807)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.91

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$10.79

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.72

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$8.63

Record

58%

1038-742 (1780)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.82

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$6.74

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.85

Record

30%

2950-6939 (9889)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.