Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on November 13?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $59 held · ends Nov 13

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$59.48

Combined PnL

-$47.39

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$55.51

Total Shares56

Combined PnL-$10.24

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.97

Total Shares446

Combined PnL-$37.15

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$21.14	$21.01	-$0.13	48% 622-673 (1295)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.02	$18.95	-$0.07	60% 542-365 (907)
balthazar	Noavg 99.5¢	$127.55	$8.13	-$10.03	46% 4888-5757 (10645)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$4.94	$4.95	+$0	53% 1117-973 (2090)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$30.09	$2.81	-$27.28	61% 2175-1410 (3585)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	99% 823-8 (831)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.72	$0.82	-$7.91	57% 1051-778 (1829)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.85	$0.34	-$1.97	58% 557-402 (959)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$21.14

Value

$21.01

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

622-673 (1295)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$19.02

Value

$18.95

PnL

-$0.07

Record

60%

542-365 (907)

balthazar

Invested

$127.55

Value

$8.13

PnL

-$10.03

Record

46%

4888-5757 (10645)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.09

Value

$2.81

PnL

-$27.28

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

99%

823-8 (831)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.72

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$7.91

Record

57%

1051-778 (1829)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.85

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$1.97

Record

58%

557-402 (959)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.