Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on November 13?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 95¢ · $102 held · ends Nov 13

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$102.26

Combined PnL

-$1.39

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$73.65

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$3.83

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.6

Total Shares661

Combined PnL+$2.44

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$33.37	$33.19	-$0.18	53% 925-815 (1740)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$60.3	$19.08	-$3.64	37% 3468-5985 (9453)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$19	$12.91	-$6.09	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$10.06	$12.81	+$14.37	35% 414-754 (1168)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96¢	$11.28	$11.3	+$0.03	42% 838-1166 (2004)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$5.93	$5.94	+$0.01	45% 521-645 (1166)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$4.18	$4.14	-$0.04	62% 473-292 (765)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.72	$2.88	-$5.85	58% 1038-744 (1782)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.37

Value

$33.19

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$60.3

Value

$19.08

PnL

-$3.64

Record

37%

3468-5985 (9453)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$12.91

PnL

-$6.09

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.06

Value

$12.81

PnL

+$14.37

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$11.28

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

838-1166 (2004)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.93

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$0.01

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.18

Value

$4.14

PnL

-$0.04

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.72

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$5.85

Record

58%

1038-744 (1782)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.