Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 13?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 28¢ · $459 held · ends Nov 13

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$459.34

Combined PnL

$93.04

Smart Money Entry

19.1¢ → 27.5¢

+44% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$269.95

Total Shares915

Combined PnL+$92.04

No7 traders

Total Value$189.26

Total Shares257

Combined PnL+$1

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 19.6¢	$196.34	$184.89	+$59.42	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$87.19	$87.59	+$0.4	47% 4803-5424 (10227)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$52.44	$85.05	+$32.62	35% 393-725 (1118)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 81.3¢	$158.58	$71.33	-$0.01	59% 1032-732 (1764)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 73¢	$8.58	$8.58	+$0	47% 506-567 (1073)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 73¢	$6.93	$6.88	-$0.05	30% 2939-6893 (9832)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 73¢	$6.59	$6.59	-$0	47% 521-590 (1111)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.04	$4.77	+$0.73	53% 866-756 (1622)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.53	-$0.08	77% 652-199 (851)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$196.34

Value

$184.89

PnL

+$59.42

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$87.19

Value

$87.59

PnL

+$0.4

Record

47%

4803-5424 (10227)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.44

Value

$85.05

PnL

+$32.62

Record

35%

393-725 (1118)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$158.58

Value

$71.33

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

1032-732 (1764)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$8.58

Value

$8.58

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

506-567 (1073)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$6.93

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$0.05

Record

30%

2939-6893 (9832)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.59

Value

$6.59

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

521-590 (1111)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.73

Record

53%

866-756 (1622)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.53

PnL

-$0.08

Record

77%

652-199 (851)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.