Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 13?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 54¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 13

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$214.46

Combined PnL

$28.68

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 54¢

+6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$203.23

Total Shares343

Combined PnL+$28.72

Yes1 trader

Total Value$11.11

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$0.05

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$60.6	$79.2	+$18.6	47% 4803-5424 (10227)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 51.8¢	$61.16	$63.13	+$1.97	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 51.1¢	$29.1	$30.78	+$1.68	35% 393-725 (1118)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$8.81	$11.51	+$2.7	53% 866-756 (1622)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 48.7¢	$11.16	$11.11	-$0.05	77% 652-199 (851)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 49¢	$4.42	$5.96	+$1.54	63% 451-268 (719)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 49¢	$4.65	$4.89	+$0.24	30% 2939-6893 (9832)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.54	$3.42	+$0.88	49% 471-500 (971)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.5	$3.37	+$0.87	47% 521-590 (1111)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 49¢	$0.72	$0.97	+$0.25	42% 814-1136 (1950)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$60.6

Value

$79.2

PnL

+$18.6

Record

47%

4803-5424 (10227)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$61.16

Value

$63.13

PnL

+$1.97

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$29.1

Value

$30.78

PnL

+$1.68

Record

35%

393-725 (1118)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.81

Value

$11.51

PnL

+$2.7

Record

53%

866-756 (1622)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.16

Value

$11.11

PnL

-$0.05

Record

77%

652-199 (851)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.42

Value

$5.96

PnL

+$1.54

Record

63%

451-268 (719)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0.24

Record

30%

2939-6893 (9832)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.54

Value

$3.42

PnL

+$0.88

Record

49%

471-500 (971)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.37

PnL

+$0.87

Record

47%

521-590 (1111)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.25

Record

42%

814-1136 (1950)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.