Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 2 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 13?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (18%) · Yes at 23¢ · $278 held · ends Nov 13

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 18%

Total Value

$277.82

Combined PnL

-$6.23

Smart Money Entry

30.4¢ → 22.5¢

-26% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$184.33

Total Shares658

Combined PnL-$15.93

No9 traders

Total Value$93.48

Total Shares116

Combined PnL+$9.7

Yes — 18%No — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 30.7¢	$199.58	$181.81	-$17.77	58% 1038-742 (1780)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 73¢	$29.2	$33.2	+$4	35% 407-742 (1149)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 79¢	$47.4	$14.16	+$3.79	37% 3458-5944 (9402)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 76.4¢	$10.54	$11.45	+$0.91	76% 662-214 (876)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 64¢	$8.02	$9.31	+$1.29	53% 905-797 (1702)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 84¢	$7.59	$7.49	-$0.09	48% 498-549 (1047)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 79¢	$4.87	$4.53	-$0.34	47% 518-588 (1106)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4.74	$4.53	-$0.22	42% 827-1152 (1979)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4.71	$4.5	-$0.21	47% 533-613 (1146)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.73	$4.3	+$0.57	63% 463-277 (740)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.19	$2.52	+$1.84	58% 468-339 (807)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$199.58

Value

$181.81

PnL

-$17.77

Record

58%

1038-742 (1780)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$29.2

Value

$33.2

PnL

+$4

Record

35%

407-742 (1149)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$47.4

Value

$14.16

PnL

+$3.79

Record

37%

3458-5944 (9402)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.54

Value

$11.45

PnL

+$0.91

Record

76%

662-214 (876)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.02

Value

$9.31

PnL

+$1.29

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$7.59

Value

$7.49

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

498-549 (1047)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$0.34

Record

47%

518-588 (1106)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$0.22

Record

42%

827-1152 (1979)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.21

Record

47%

533-613 (1146)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.57

Record

63%

463-277 (740)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.19

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$1.84

Record

58%

468-339 (807)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.