Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 13?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$119.92

Combined PnL

-$31.11

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$119.44

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$3.75

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.48

Total Shares300

Combined PnL-$27.36

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.84	-$0.08	99% 649-8 (657)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$19.24	-$3.67	37% 3458-5944 (9402)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.02	$9.02	+$0	63% 463-277 (740)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.16	$6.16	-$0	62% 463-283 (746)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.17	$5.17	-$0	42% 827-1152 (1979)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.93	$0.19	-$1.2	58% 468-339 (807)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.91	$0.12	-$10.79	47% 4818-5478 (10296)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.72	$0.1	-$8.63	58% 1038-742 (1780)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.82	$0.08	-$6.74	63% 2135-1236 (3371)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.84

PnL

-$0.08

Record

99%

649-8 (657)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$19.24

PnL

-$3.67

Record

37%

3458-5944 (9402)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$9.02

Value

$9.02

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

463-277 (740)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.16

Value

$6.16

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

463-283 (746)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

827-1152 (1979)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.93

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$1.2

Record

58%

468-339 (807)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.91

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$10.79

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.72

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$8.63

Record

58%

1038-742 (1780)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.82

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$6.74

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.