Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on November 13?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $321 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$321.28

Combined PnL

-$28.57

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$320.47

Total Shares321

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.81

Total Shares316

Combined PnL-$28.58

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$299.7	$299.7	+$0	99% 649-8 (657)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.74	$11.74	+$0.01	48% 498-549 (1047)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.02	$9.03	+$0	45% 512-638 (1150)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.91	$0.24	-$10.67	47% 4818-5478 (10296)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.99	$0.2	-$1.24	58% 468-339 (807)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.72	$0.19	-$8.53	58% 1038-742 (1780)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.82	$0.15	-$6.67	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.86	$0.02	-$0.84	30% 2950-6939 (9889)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.64	$0.01	-$0.62	39% 1399-2233 (3632)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$299.7

Value

$299.7

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

649-8 (657)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$11.74

Value

$11.74

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

498-549 (1047)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.02

Value

$9.03

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

512-638 (1150)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.91

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$10.67

Record

47%

4818-5478 (10296)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.99

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.24

Record

58%

468-339 (807)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.72

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$8.53

Record

58%

1038-742 (1780)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.82

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$6.67

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.84

Record

30%

2950-6939 (9889)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.62

Record

39%

1399-2233 (3632)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.