Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on November 13?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $100 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$100.15

Combined PnL

-$36.61

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$99.95

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.2

Total Shares405

Combined PnL-$36.66

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	99% 675-8 (683)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.91	$0.06	-$10.85	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.72	$0.05	-$8.68	58% 1038-744 (1782)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.82	$0.04	-$6.78	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.03	-$5.42	37% 3468-5985 (9453)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.45	$0.02	-$3.44	58% 481-347 (828)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.86	$0	-$0.86	30% 2961-6982 (9943)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.64	$0	-$0.63	39% 1399-2234 (3633)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

675-8 (683)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.91

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.85

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.72

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.68

Record

58%

1038-744 (1782)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.82

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.78

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.42

Record

37%

3468-5985 (9453)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.45

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.44

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

PnL

-$0.86

Record

30%

2961-6982 (9943)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

PnL

-$0.63

Record

39%

1399-2234 (3633)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.