Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $121 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$120.55
-$13.22
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $83.42 | $83.42 | +$0 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.98 | +$0 | 53% 5912-5294 (11206) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $65.14 | $10.54 | -$6.03 | 49% 492-514 (1006) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.76 | $5.13 | -$0.01 | 47% 484-554 (1038) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.18 | $1.05 | -$5.12 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.48 | $0.42 | -$2.06 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
Invested
$83.42
Value
$83.42
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5912-5294 (11206)
Invested
$65.14
Value
$10.54
PnL
-$6.03
Record
49%
492-514 (1006)
Invested
$25.76
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
484-554 (1038)
Invested
$6.18
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$5.12
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.48
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$2.06
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.