Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $174 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$174.35
-$0.48
99.5¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $45.83 | $45.64 | -$0.2 | 22% 80-280 (360) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $37.13 | $37.08 | -$0.05 | 29% 871-2138 (3009) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $29.76 | $29.75 | -$0.02 | 40% 1444-2158 (3602) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $27.23 | $27.14 | -$0.09 | 51% 4602-4505 (9107) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.85 | -$0.07 | 53% 5602-5022 (10624) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $14.96 | $14.89 | -$0.06 | 37% 3143-5368 (8511) |
Invested
$45.83
Value
$45.64
PnL
-$0.2
Record
22%
80-280 (360)
Invested
$37.13
Value
$37.08
PnL
-$0.05
Record
29%
871-2138 (3009)
Invested
$29.76
Value
$29.75
PnL
-$0.02
Record
40%
1444-2158 (3602)
balthazar<$100Invested
$27.23
Value
$27.14
PnL
-$0.09
Record
51%
4602-4505 (9107)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.85
PnL
-$0.07
Record
53%
5602-5022 (10624)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.96
Value
$14.89
PnL
-$0.06
Record
37%
3143-5368 (8511)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.