Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 95¢ · $112 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$111.87
-$1.37
97.2¢ → 95.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $29.37 | $28.68 | -$0.69 | 20% 69-276 (345) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $26.77 | $26.12 | -$0.65 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $19.13 | $19.12 | -$0.01 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $15.32 | $15.27 | -$0.05 | 11% 44-371 (415) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $14.69 | $14.34 | -$0.35 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $5.28 | $5.25 | -$0.03 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $2.68 | $3.08 | +$0.4 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
Invested
$29.37
Value
$28.68
PnL
-$0.69
Record
20%
69-276 (345)
balthazar<$100Invested
$26.77
Value
$26.12
PnL
-$0.65
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$19.13
Value
$19.12
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$15.32
Value
$15.27
PnL
-$0.05
Record
11%
44-371 (415)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.69
Value
$14.34
PnL
-$0.35
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$5.25
PnL
-$0.03
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Invested
$2.68
Value
$3.08
PnL
+$0.4
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.