Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 12?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 72¢ · $219 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$219.07
$35.26
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.2¢ | $59.57 | $82.77 | +$23.2 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.6¢ | $37.96 | $47.04 | +$9.08 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $15.93 | $22.12 | +$6.19 | 69% 2060-945 (3005) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $23.1 | $21.6 | -$1.5 | 17% 54-273 (327) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $20.49 | $19.67 | -$0.82 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $17.45 | $15.07 | -$0.15 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $11.55 | $10.8 | -$0.75 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
Invested
$59.57
Value
$82.77
PnL
+$23.2
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$37.96
Value
$47.04
PnL
+$9.08
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
Invested
$15.93
Value
$22.12
PnL
+$6.19
Record
69%
2060-945 (3005)
Invested
$23.1
Value
$21.6
PnL
-$1.5
Record
17%
54-273 (327)
balthazar<$100Invested
$20.49
Value
$19.67
PnL
-$0.82
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$17.45
Value
$15.07
PnL
-$0.15
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.55
Value
$10.8
PnL
-$0.75
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.