Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on November 12?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 56¢ · $82 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$82.19
$0.43
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $16.5 | $16.5 | -$0 | 27% 912-2510 (3422) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $15.02 | $15.02 | +$0 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $11 | $11 | -$0 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $8.78 | $8.78 | +$0 | 11% 42-326 (368) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $8.61 | $8.61 | +$0 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $8.25 | $8.25 | -$0 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $8 | $8.2 | +$0.2 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 52.8¢ | $5.59 | $5.83 | +$0.23 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
Invested
$16.5
Value
$16.5
PnL
-$0
Record
27%
912-2510 (3422)
balthazar<$100Invested
$15.02
Value
$15.02
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$11
Value
$11
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$8.78
Value
$8.78
PnL
+$0
Record
11%
42-326 (368)
Invested
$8.61
Value
$8.61
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8.25
Value
$8.25
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$8
Value
$8.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$5.59
Value
$5.83
PnL
+$0.23
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.