Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on November 12?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $782 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$782.24
-$7.56
75.7¢ → 76¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $357.85 | $355.34 | -$2.51 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $222.65 | $221.25 | -$1.4 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $156.82 | $155.54 | -$1.28 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $16.2 | $15 | -$1.2 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $12.94 | $11.98 | -$0.96 | 40% 1429-2156 (3585) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $11.1 | $11.25 | +$0.15 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $9.8 | $9.3 | -$0.5 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $2.45 | $2.59 | +$0.14 | 20% 69-276 (345) |
Invested
$357.85
Value
$355.34
PnL
-$2.51
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$222.65
Value
$221.25
PnL
-$1.4
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$156.82
Value
$155.54
PnL
-$1.28
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$15
PnL
-$1.2
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$12.94
Value
$11.98
PnL
-$0.96
Record
40%
1429-2156 (3585)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$11.1
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$0.15
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.3
PnL
-$0.5
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.59
PnL
+$0.14
Record
20%
69-276 (345)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.