Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$80.07
$1.08
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $28.5 | $29.1 | +$0.6 | 11% 42-326 (368) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.4 | $19.4 | +$0 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $15.34 | $15.49 | +$0.15 | 29% 862-2136 (2998) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $14.28 | $14.55 | +$0.27 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.47 | $1.53 | +$0.06 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
Invested
$28.5
Value
$29.1
PnL
+$0.6
Record
11%
42-326 (368)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$19.4
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$15.34
Value
$15.49
PnL
+$0.15
Record
29%
862-2136 (2998)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.28
Value
$14.55
PnL
+$0.27
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$1.47
Value
$1.53
PnL
+$0.06
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.