Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $108 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$107.96
$0.1
99.6¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.85 | $29.91 | +$0.06 | 11% 44-371 (415) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $27.21 | $27.24 | +$0.03 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.94 | +$0 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.92 | $15.92 | +$0 | 20% 69-276 (345) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $14.94 | $14.96 | +$0.02 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
Invested
$29.85
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0.06
Record
11%
44-371 (415)
balthazar<$100Invested
$27.21
Value
$27.24
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$15.92
Value
$15.92
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
69-276 (345)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.94
Value
$14.96
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.