Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $381 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$380.59
$0
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $299.7 | $299.7 | +$0 | 99% 196-1 (197) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 40% 1429-2156 (3585) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.98 | +$0 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.95 | $15.95 | +$0 | 27% 912-2510 (3422) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $14.99 | $14.99 | +$0 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
Invested
$299.7
Value
$299.7
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
196-1 (197)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1429-2156 (3585)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$15.95
Value
$15.95
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
912-2510 (3422)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$14.99
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.